Dhaka, Bangladesh (BBN)- South Asia faces daunting climate-related development changes, a top World Bank (WB) climate economist has said.
The economist also listed poverty and population increase, urbanization, water shortage and natural disasters as four key factors that could make the region vulnerable to the impact of a changing climate.
"Even small climate shocks can cause irreversible losses and tip a large number of people into destitution," said the WB’s lead environmental economist Richard Damania.
His warning came as climate officials, experts and donor representatives from across the region this week gathered to the Nepali capital of Kathmandu to forge regional cooperation for offsetting the potential climate crisis.
South Asia has the highest density of poverty in the world, with an estimated 600 million South Asians subsisting on less than US$ 1.25 a day.
Given the current trends, Mr Damania, now in Kathmandu to attend the climate conference, said that the region would host five of the world's 11 megacities –Mumbai, New Delhi, Dhaka, Karachi and Kolkata.
“The cities of South Asia already face immense challenges, including poorly maintained infrastructure, unplanned growth, scant livelihood opportunities, and susceptibility of the poor populations to ill health,” the WB economist added.
The WB said that the ice mass covering the Himalayan-Hindu Kush mountain range is the source of the nine largest rivers of Asia, including the Ganges, Brahmapautra and Indus.
Glacial melt coupled with more variable precipitation could severely compromise livelihoods and the future prospects of agriculture, Mr.Damania said.
Afghanistan has been facing extreme climate variability with increased, intensifying existing livelihood fragility and compounding social and economic risks, the WB said.
Exceptional scale of impacts including sea-level rise directly affecting at least 30 percent of the population, coupled with intensified monsoons and changes in rainfall patterns yielding flood and drought shocks, and cyclones, all stretching current community adaptation to the limit in Bangladesh, the WB expert said, adding that massive climate out-migration is likely to happen.
Increased intensity and frequency of storm surges, cyclones, floods and droughts, negative impact on agricultural yields, decrease in river flows, sea level rise and its impact on coastal livelihoods and consequences of Himalayan snow melt and associated risks are the major climate change-induced issues in India.
“The magnitude of every climate change impact is likely to be among the world’s highest, but this massive challenge is crowded out by mitigation concerns,” Mr Damania.
Potentially huge and rapid reductions in (50 percent glacier-fed) Indus flows, coupled with intensified droughts and sea-level rise, will require major livelihood transitions and economic transformation, with consequent risks of social upheaval if unplanned in Pakistan, the WB said.
Sea-level rise and increased cyclone incidence impacting dense coastal populations and livelihoods in Sri Lanka, the WB expert noted.
In Maldives, sea-level rise and tidal surges threaten to displace the majority of the population.
Severe climate change impacts through snow melting and glacial lake outburst and lowland floods and potential threat on hydroelectricity generation due to low river flow in Nepal.
However, unique opportunity for compensation for environmental services as Nepal is potential key to adaptation in the river basins through adoption of renewable or clean energy development path including hydroelectricity development and forest management, the WB noted.
For Bhutan, the WB expert said the knowledge base is limited.
However, rising temperatures and the associated glacial melt, Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) and varying agricultural yields are likely to be the greatest threats to the South Asian country, Mr Mr Damania added.
BBN/SS/SI/AD-02September09-2:16 am (BST)