Geneva, Switzerland (BBN) -The World Trade Organization (WTO) has upgraded its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025 to 2.4%, up from 0.9% in its August estimate. But growth is projected to slow sharply to just 0.5% in 2026, following a downgrade from an earlier forecast of 1.8%.
Services trade is also expected to cool, with exports projected to rise 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, compared with 6.8% in 2024.
“Trade growth will likely slow in 2026 as the impact of the cooling global economy and new tariffs set in,” the WTO warned in its latest update of "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics".
Still, the trade body noted that AI-driven demand helped buoy global flows in 2025. Exports of semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment surged 20% year-on-year in value terms in the first half of the year, accounting for nearly half of global merchandise trade expansion.
Overall, world merchandise trade volumes rose 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while trade values in US dollar terms increased 6%, following a 2% rise in 2024.
The WTO projects global GDP growth at 2.7% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. While the 2025 outlook was revised upward from earlier estimates, the 2026 downgrade offsets much of the gain, with tariff impacts expected to weigh more heavily in the later year. An early inventory buildup of durable goods in 2025 is unlikely to be fully unwound in 2026, further dampening demand.
By region, Asia and Africa are expected to lead export growth in 2025, alongside modest gains in South and Central America, the Caribbean, and the Middle East. Europe will likely see slower growth, while North America and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are projected to post declining exports. Least-developed countries (LDCs) are forecast to record solid export gains but may face weakening momentum ahead.
On the import side, Africa and LDCs are set to register the fastest growth in 2025, while North America is expected to see a contraction. In 2026, only North America, Europe, and the CIS are forecast to improve their export performance, while imports are projected to weaken across all regions.
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