Beijing, China (BBN)-China’s exports rose more than estimated in October, signaling foreign demand may help sustain an economy forecast to grow at the slowest pace since 1990.
Overseas shipments increased 11.6 percent from a year earlier, exceeding the 10.6 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.
Imports rose 4.6 percent, compared with projections of 5 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $45.4 billion, the customs administration said today.
Recoveries in the U.S. and Europe are underpinning growth, with the two regions accounting for almost a third of shipments, reports Bloomberg.
Exports to Hong Kong, which then go to other destinations, surged 24 percent in October.
Disparities in bilateral trade data published by China and Hong Kong have raised concerns of fake invoicing, which is used to evade controls on the flow of capital into the mainland.
“The U.S. recovery is pretty strong so China exports are holding up,” said Hu Yifan, chief economist at Haitong International Securities Group Ltd. in Hong Kong.
“There might still be some fluff in the trade numbers due to fake invoicing, but there won’t be severe fake trade like that of last year.”
The exports reading follows a 15.3 percent jump in September. The trade surplus was forecast at $42 billion, following a $30.96 billion figure for September.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Exports in October to members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations grew 18 percent from a year earlier, today’s data showed. Shipments to Japan declined 8.1 percent.
China’s economy will probably grow 7.4 percent this year, the slowest full-year expansion since 1990, according to a Bloomberg survey.
In September, the gap between China’s reported exports to Hong Kong and the territory’s imports from the mainland widened to the most this year, suggesting fake export-invoicing is again skewing China’s trade data.
China’s government sent a team to Guangdong province to investigate the seven-fold increase in precious-metals exports, according to people familiar with the matter.
BBN/SS-08Nov14-1:15pm (BST)