Dhaka, Bangladesh (BBN)- The excess liquidity in banks dropped by 14.89 per cent in September mainly due to higher growth of currency outside banking system before the national polls.
The selling of the US dollar by the central bank has also helped dragging down the amount of surplus cash in the country’s banking system, senior officials of the Bangladesh Bank (BB) said.
The excess liquidity came down to around BDT 800 billion in September from BDT 940 billion, recorded three months before, they added.
The figure was nearly BDT 922 billion in September 2017.
However, the major portion of the excess liquidity has already been invested in the government-approved securities and BB bills as a risk-free investment for the banks, said the central bank officials.
Meanwhile, excess reserve, generally known as excess over daily minimum cash reserve requirement (CRR) with the central bank, came down to BDT 50.72 billion in September from BDT 59 billion in June 2018.
Talking to the BBN, a BB senior official said the excess liquidity dropped significantly during the period despite the falling trend in the private sector credit growth.
The credit growth to the private sector came down to 14.67 per cent in September 2018 on a year-on-year basis from 14.95 per cent a month ago. It was 15.87 per cent in July 2018.
The existing trend in excess liquidity may continue until the new government takes power, the central banker explained.
On the other hand, the currency outside the banking system rose by 11.39 per cent or BDT 156.92 billion to BDT 1,533.95 billion in August from BDT 1,377.02 billion a month ago, the BB data showed.
Such type of currency was BDT 1,478.23 billion in August 2017.
Senior bankers, economists and experts, however, expressed concern over high growth currency outside the banking system, saying that flow of funds in excess of normal volume in the banking system will largely help meet the growing demand for liquidity.
The presence of more than usual amount of currency outside the banking system has also affected the deposit growth than that of credit in the recent months, according to banking-sector insiders.
Besides, the widening gap between credit and deposit growth continued in 2017 as many people with surplus funds stayed away from banks due to lower interest rates, the market insiders explained.
The deposit growth had been on a slide, falling from 13.13per cent on December 31, 2016 to 10.94 per cent on June 30, 2017 and 10.62 per cent on December 31 last.
Such trend of deposit growth continues till September this calendar year, according to the BB’s confidential report.
The deposit growth came down to 10.25 per cent as on September 27 from 11.29 per cent as on June 30, 2018. It was 10.51 per cent as on March 29, this calendar year.
On the other hand, lower deposit pushed down credit growth at 13.82 per cent in September from 16.75 per cent three months ago. It was 17.38 per cent in March 2018, the report added.
There are different views about the problem, ranging from the hoarding of currencies as ‘mattress money’, manipulation of invoices for both capital and other goods by using different techniques, and purchase of foreign currencies from unofficial channel -- generally known as kerb market -- to transfer funds outside the country using illegal channels.
Besides, a substantial amount of funds has been kept aside from the banking channel deliberately with a view to spending the same during the upcoming general election, it is suspected.
Sources, however, said informal markets have been operating in Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Pakistan and a number of other countries, particularly involving exchanges of 1000-and 500-denominated Bangladesh Taka (BDT), besides India.
However, the official sources wouldn’t agree with the contentions about the flight of the local currency for use in informal markets abroad. They say the BDT is not convertible under capital account.
But the sources did not contest the view about some amount of the money lying outside the banking system being used to buy particularly the cash US dollar from the informal market during the period to avoid the hassle of taxmen as well as the existing anti-money-laundering act.
Bankers are now asked to submit suspicious transaction report (STR) and cash transaction report (CTR) to the Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit (BFIU) of the central bank timely as a way of curbing money laundering and terrorism financing.
The banks have to report any single transaction worth BDT 1.0 million and above in form of withdrawal or deposit to the BFIU as per the existing provisions.
The demand for the greenback on the kerb market has increased because of such practices, pushing up the exchange rate of the US dollar against the BDT.
The greenback has sold at more than BDT 86.00 on the informal market recently. It was BDT 83.00-BDT 84.00 six months before, according to a currency trader.
Under the rule of thumb, rates of the dollar normally increase on the kerb market when unofficial transactions like smuggling and manipulations of invoices take place, they added.
Economists and experts said inflation, particularly non-food one, may creep up in the coming months following the use of such currency centring the upcoming elections.
A portion of such currency may be pumped back into the banking channel in the form of donation, gift and other modes of transactions before and during the elections, they noted.
The demand for local currency may pick up if the amount of currency outside banks remains almost unchanged in the near future, they said.
“A large portion of such money may use for consumption purposes, pushing up the inflationary pressure on the economy in the near future,” Mustafa K Mujeri, former director-general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), explained.
Mr. Mujeri, also former chief economist at the central bank, feared price level may increase if such money is used ahead of the elections.
Talking to the BBN Syed Mahbubur Rahman, Chairman of Association of Bankers, Bangladesh (ABB) said the demand for the Bangladesh Taka (BDT) may pick up in the coming months if the excess liquidity maintains a declining trend.
Mr. Rahman, also managing director and chief executive officer (CEO) of Dhaka Bank Limited, said the interest rate on deposits is now increasing gradually, which may continue if the situation on excess liquidity does not improve shortly.
The overall situation on deposit may improve gradually as the central bank had taken different measures including slashing the limit of advance-deposit ratio (ADR) recently.
The ADR of all banks is re-fixed at 83.50 per cent for conventional banks and at 89 per cent for shariah-based Islamic banks. The existing ratios are 85 and 90 respectively.
The banks have to make adjustment gradually by March 31, 2019.
Earlier the bankers cut down their interest rates on deposits, particularly long-term ones, collectively, which was bad.
Depositors, particularly small ones, have lost interest in making further deposit with the banks mainly due to lower interest rates on deposits and prefer to invest in the government savings instruments, according to the experts.
Besides, the falling trend in the interest rates on deposits has affected the saving habit of the people, prompting them to spend on consumption, they explained.
They also said a growing number of loan scams that occurred in both public and private commercial banks triggered panic among people, which ultimately leads to a lack of confidence in the safekeeping of their hard-earned money.
In this situation, the banks have been advised to avoid ‘aggressive’ lending for minimizing credit risks.
The banks should invest in productive sectors moving out from the less-productive ones to help in achieving maximum economic growth by the end of this fiscal year.
BBN/SSR/AD