Washington DC (BBN)- World cotton production is expected to increase by 5.0 per cent to 23 million tonnes in 20116-17 while the average yield is projected to improve by 5.0 per cent to 735 kg/ha.
However, the overall cotton production area is expected to contract by 1.0 per cent to 31 million hectares in 2016/17, according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) estimation.
The ICAC’s latest projection came after falling trend of both production and price of cotton in the global market in 2015-16.
In 2015/16, world cotton production fell by 17 per cent to 21.7 million tonnes, the lowest volume since 2003/04. Low international cotton prices at planting time led to a 9.0 per cent contraction in area to 31.1 million hectares and the world average yield decreased by 9.0 per cent to 699 kg/ha.
However, while area is expected to contract by 1.0 per cent to 31 million hectares in 2016/17, the average yield is projected to improve by 5.0 per cent to 735 kg/ha, which would cause production to increase by 5.0 per cent to 23 million tonnes.
Cotton area in India is expected to expand by 1.0 per cent to 12 million hectares in 2016/17, and production to increase by 8.0 per cent to 6.3 million tonnes.
Better monsoon weather may boost yield by 6.0 per cent to 521 kg/ha, though pest pressure remains a concern, the ICAC noted.
Cotton area in China is projected to decline by 10 per cent to 3.1 million hectares due to high production costs and reduced government support, and production is forecast to decrease by 10 per cent to 4.7 million tonnes.
After contracting by 14 per cent to 3.3 million hectares in 2015/16 due to less attractive cotton prices and overly wet soil conditions preventing planting in some areas, cotton area in the United States is expected to expand by 5.0 per cent to 3.4 million hectares, and production could increase by 14 per cent to 3.2 million tonnes.
In 2015/16, Pakistan’s average yield declined by 32 per cent to 528 kg/ha while production fell to 1.5 million tonnes as pink bollworm, which is hard to spot in the field, re-emerged as a significant pest.
However, measures are being taken to help combat the pes, and as a result, yield is expected to partially recover by 25 per cent to 662 kg/ha in 2016/17.
Nevertheless, cotton area is likely to contract by 5.0 per cent to 2.7 million hectares as farmers switch to competing crops with better returns, and production is projected to increase by 19 per cent to 1.8 million tonnes.
Global consumption is forecast to remain at 23.6 million tonnes in 2016/17 as low prices for competing fibers make cotton less attractive. Consumption in China is projected to decline by 5.0 per cent decline to 6.8 million tonnes.
However, mill use is likely to grow by 11 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes in Vietnam and by 10 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes in Bangladesh.
Despite declining demand for imports of cotton yarn by China in 2015/16, mill use in India is expected to recover by 3.0 per cent to 5.4 million tonnes and in Pakistan by 1.0 per cent to 2.2 million tonnes.
While mill use remains stagnant in 2016/17, world cotton trade volume may increase by 1.0 per cent to 7.4 million tonnes.
China’s imports are expected to decrease by 8.0 per cent to 947,000 tonnes as the Chinese government continues to restrict imports in order to reduce its sizeable stocks of cotton.
However, imports outside of China are forecast to increase by 3.0 per cent to 6.5 million tonnes.
Given the larger exportable surplus available in the United States, exports are projected to increase by 18 per cent to 2.3 million tonnes in 2016/17.
World stocks at the end of 2016/17 are projected to decrease by 5.0 per cent to 20.4 million tons as mill use exceeds production by 930,000 tonnes.
Ending stocks in the rest of the world are forecast to rise by 3.0 per cent to 8.7 million tonnes, though the stock-to-use ratio outside of China would be similar to the 36 per cent registered last season.
BBN/SSR/AD